Macro concerns suppress copper prices rebound, with LME copper and SHFE copper both closing lower [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, May 19: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,519/mt, initially touching a high of $9,541.5/mt before slightly pulling back and then continuing to rise. It pulled back towards the end of the session, touching a low of $9,430/mt, and eventually closed at $9,440/mt, down 1.67%. Trading volume reached 14,000 lots, and open interest reached 294,000 lots. On the same evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,920 yuan/mt, initially touching a high of 78,090 yuan/mt before fluctuating downward and touching a low of 77,550 yuan/mt during the session. It consolidated sideways towards the end of the session and eventually closed at 77,670 yuan/mt, down 0.82%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest reached 176,000 lots. On the macro front, the latest round of economic data showed that import prices rebounded in April, while consumer confidence remained sluggish in May due to heightened concerns over the impact of President Trump's trade policies. The US dollar index first fell and then rose, while copper prices first rose and then fell. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bentsen stated on Sunday that if countries fail to reach a trade agreement within the 90-day tariff suspension period, tariff rates will soon revert to "reciprocal" levels. On the fundamental front, formal trading of the SHFE copper 2506 contract commenced during the day on Friday. The backlog of warrants in warehouses led to tight spot market liquidity, with suppliers holding firm on their quotes. There were significant differences in premiums for different copper grades. The outflow of warrants this week may suppress premiums, but expectations of downstream purchases at lower prices may boost trading volume, with bullish and bearish factors coexisting. In terms of prices, it is expected that copper prices will encounter resistance today.